The next battle between establishment Dems and progressives? NJ’s special election.

Just days after Mikie Sherrill resigned from Congress in November, former union organizer Analilia Mejia secured her highest-profile endorsement so far in a crowded race to fill the incoming governor's seat in the House of Representatives.

"Analilia’s experience and deep dedication to working families make her the best choice for this seat," U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont wrote on X.

The backing places Mejia in the company of rising progressive Democrats like New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Maine U.S. Senate candidate Graham Platner who have vied to replace the party establishment. And many political observers in New Jersey say Mejia’s campaign to replace Sherrill is a test of whether a left-wing candidate can win in what has traditionally been a moderate district.

Due to recent changes in how the state organizes ballots, 11 Democrats and a lone Republican, Mayor Joe Hathaway of Randolph, New Jersey, are all competing for the seat in the state’s 11th Congressional District, which consists of parts of Essex, Morris and Passaic counties. The primaries are set for Feb. 5, with the general election set for two months later on April 16.

Recent electoral results suggest that an ultra-left candidate will struggle to gain traction in the district. Democratic voters there heavily favored Sherrill in last year’s gubernatorial primary as a more moderate, institutional-type candidate over Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop.

This year's special election features many big recognizable names from the state's Democratic Party, including Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way and former Rep. Tom Malinowski, who previously represented part of the district before its borders were redrawn in 2021.

“That's probably your top tier,” said Kristopher Shields, professor at the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University. “It’s interesting to have three people who are that well known in New Jersey politics all in the race.”

But Mejia is carving out a lane for herself by running to the left of her fellow Democrats.

“You shouldn't sleep on Mejia, who has really strong progressive credentials,” Shields said.

Along with the endorsement of Sanders — whom she worked for during his 2020 presidential campaign — she has picked up several notable labor union endorsements, including the Communications Workers of America District 1, which represents 70,000 workers across the state, and two Rutgers University faculty unions.

She also racked up about 1,500 signatures supporting her candidacy — three times the amount needed to get her on the primary ballot this February.

Mejia told Gothamist that “regular old blue” Democrats are not what the party needs during “a moment of tremendous crisis like we find ourselves right now in our nation.”

“ I think the bottom line is that at this moment, sending an organizer to Congress is what our nation and this district needs,” she said.

Shields said Mejia could succeed if she’s able to lock in votes from the Bernie wing of the Democratic party while the crowded field of other candidates divvy up a fixed number of moderate voters.

“That is Mejia's best sort of route to victory is if she can kind of consolidate the progressive vote and then see those others split the more traditional vote,” he said. “I wouldn't necessarily predict it.”

Whoever wins the seat will have to run again in November.

“Small differences” between candidates

Some left-wing Democrats have recently found success in New Jersey. In November, several progressive candidates, including housing policy expert Katie Brennan and Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla, won seats in the state Assembly. In Jersey City, newly elected Mayor James Solomon consolidated a progressive coalition to defeat former New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey.

But Gill and Malinowski pushed back on the idea that Mejia or any one candidate had the progressive lane all to themselves in the race to replace Sherrill.

”This is a ‘No Kings’ election for most Democrats. This is not an election in which we're litigating the small differences on economic and social issues that exist within the Democratic party,” Malinowski told Gothamist.

The former congressmember has the support of New Jersey Sen. Andy Kim, a favorite among many liberals, who has joined Malinowski at several campaign events.

Malinowski announced on Instagram on Jan. 8 that he’s raised $1 million for his campaign. It’s unclear how much Mejia and Gill and other candidates have raised so far. Candidates won’t have to disclose fundraising numbers until Jan. 24, just weeks before the primary. But Gill told Gothamist, “we like where we are on fundraising.”

Gill has also received endorsements from progressives like state Sen. Britnee Timberlake and the mayor of his hometown of Montclair, Renee Baskerville, along with more than a dozen union endorsements, including the prominent International Brotherhood of Teamsters. Outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy is also backing Gill.

“I consider myself to be a coalition builder,” Gill told Gothamist. "I don't spend a lot of time thinking about which wing of the party that I, so to speak, come from."

Many of the Democratic candidates are striking a similar chord on campaign issues. Gill, Malinowski and Mejia have all said that restoring the health insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act would be a top priority if elected. All have said they’ll use their power if elected to Congress to fight what they see as corruption and abuses of power by the Trump administration.

But Mejia has gone further on some issues, like impeaching Supreme Court Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito for what she called “corruption and conflicts of interest.” Both justices received luxury travel and other gifts from wealthy political donors without disclosing the benefits, according to reporting by ProPublica.

End of “the line”

Gill, Malinowski and Way have each shored up their establishment credentials with endorsements from county Democratic committees. Gill was endorsed by the Essex County Democratic Committee. Malinowski received the backing of the Morris County Democrats, while Way split the endorsement of the Passaic County Democratic Committee with John Bartlett, a voting rights attorney and longtime commissioner in the county who is also running for Sherrill’s old seat.

In the past, this would grant them a prominent placement in a specific column on each county’s ballot — what was colloquially known as "the line." However, a successful 2024 lawsuit brought by then-Rep. Andy Kim claiming this gave an unconstitutional advantage to political machine backed candidates led to the practice’s demise.

“Before the line was eliminated, you would see two or three [candidates] and they would compete for the county endorsements and whoever got the county endorsements would have a huge leg up,” said Ben Dworkin,  director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship at Rowan University. “It makes it much more of an open process and therefore the fight over county committee endorsements today means much less than it did just a couple years ago.”

Turnout surged in New Jersey’s off-year election last November, surprising many voters and political observers accustomed to gubernatorial elections that typically garner less interest when a presidential candidate is not on the ballot. The question is whether the state’s electorate will sustain its enthusiasm for going to the polls. Next month’s primaries will be held in the dead of winter and on a Thursday, not on a Tuesday like ordinary elections.

With lower turnout a possibility, Dworkin said the election could be determined by which candidate has the most extensive network of supporters they can rally to come out for a special election in February. He said the Democratic primary could be decided by a “handful of votes.”

“That makes everybody able to win because a small group that organizes itself is able to have an outsized influence,” he said.