NYPD says it's tracking online radicalization after failed Gracie Mansion attack

NYPD officials say they are closely tracking online extremism after two teens were charged with trying to ignite explosives during a protest outside Gracie Mansion earlier this month.

The teens, Emir Balat, 18, and Ibrahim Kayumi, 19, tried to blow up homemade devices equipped with nuts, bolts and fuses at an anti-Muslim protest led by a far-right influencer on March 7, according to federal prosecutors. One of the devices tested positive for TATP, a highly volatile substance also known as the “Mother of Satan,” law enforcement said.

Balat and Kayumi both professed their support for Islamic State after police arrested them, according to federal charging papers. Prosecutors said Kayumi told officers he watched Islamic State propaganda on his phone.

Experts on security and terrorism said the Gracie Mansion incident highlights the increasing threat of online radicalization — particularly among young people — and will likely spur more police surveillance on the web. But some also cautioned against a response that infringes on civil liberties, as the NYPD was accused of in 9/11's aftermath.

“We have to strike a balance between living in a free, open society and being in some kind of state of lockdown all the time, which obviously is just unrealistic and un-American,” said former NYPD Counterterrorism Chief James Waters.

Rebecca Weiner, the current NYPD deputy commissioner of intelligence and counterterrorism, said in an interview that investigating threats and preventing violence is a “huge priority” for the department. But she said added it’s also important to allow people to engage in free speech online.

“This is something that we think about intensively, and we are acutely focused on making sure that we’re trying to thread that needle,” she said.

Layers of prevention

Since 9/11, the NYPD has built a sprawling counterterrorism unit, with officials working in New York City and around the world to prevent attacks.

The NYPD’s technology policies, which are posted on its website under a local law, provide some insight into the tools the department uses to address threats of terrorism.

A department policy on for how it analyzes social network analysis explains that in the aftermath of a terrorist attack, the department may use tools to “quickly assess the social media profile of the perpetrator for connections to the New York City area and allocate resources in response.”

The department’s facial recognition policy lists “thwart[ing] an active terrorism scheme or plot” as a possible operational use. Another policy states the department uses software to pull different types of information — like arrest reports, phone numbers and firearm license records — into one place, in order to “to detect, deter and prevent terrorist activities,” as well as to aid with other criminal investigations.

Weiner said law enforcement has noticed an increasing threat of radicalization among young people across the ideological spectrum, especially since the pandemic and the start of the Israel-Hamas War. In some cases, she said, those young people turn to violence. The deputy commissioner said online platforms have normalized extreme behavior through humor, memes and game-like qualities, such as scoreboards that give points for violent incidents.

“ There's the structures of the platforms and the algorithmic nudging that is exposing people to more and more extreme content, of any age,” she said. “And there's the online dynamics, the online ecosystem of bullying and extreme gore, and individuals finding each other and having an echo chamber in which to kind of marinate.”

Navigating these behaviors with young people is “very tricky,” Weiner said, because police don’t want to send minors to jail for engaging with technology. She said law enforcement officials try to identify threats before they turn into violence and “off-ramp” young people by speaking with their parents or school officials when possible. But if someone’s actions appear to be violating the law, she said, police may launch an investigation.

Preventing these types of threats requires layers of policing, according to Waters, who retired from the department in 2020. He said those measures could include both preventative steps, like undercover operations where police pretend to be Islamic State members online, along with magnetometers and gates at high-profile events, like protests or the New Year’s Eve ball drop.

The ‘attention economy’

Social media is an effective tool for radicalizing people and encouraging them to carry out attacks, security experts told Gothamist.

Waters said online propaganda has changed since he first started working in counterterrorism decades ago. He said rudimentary recruitment videos with Islamic State members doing calisthenics morphed into instructions for how to build a bomb in your own kitchen with supplies from the local hardware store.

“You could sit in your basement on the computer all day long and work yourself up into a dither,” he said.

Joshua Fisher-Birch, a researcher at the Counter Extremism Project, said extremist propagandists operate similarly to content creators in many ways: they try to score as many followers as possible and keep them engaged.

“This is all part of the attention economy,” he said.

Extremist groups aim to spread their propaganda on large social media sites with lots of eyes on them, like TikTok and Instagram, Fisher-Birch said, or on gaming platforms that are popular with younger people. Telegram and other messaging apps are sometimes used for private chats and one-on-one communication, he said.

“ There certainly is concerted effort from extremist groups and the supporters of extremist groups who are trying to recruit youth to spread very specific content in areas where you congregate online,” Fisher-Birch said.

Social media companies typically take down extremist content when they find out it’s on their platform, he said. But content moderation has slowed down in the last few years, he said, especially since Elon Musk bought X and President Donald Trump took office. Fisher-Birch said this type of content poses a challenge for law enforcement attempting to keep track of potential threats.

“A great deal of this propaganda is not actually violating the law,” he said. “It’s violating the terms of service of the specific sites where they’re posted.”

Waters said people viewing this type of content likely wouldn’t be on the police’s radar if they had no criminal history. He said that’s why law enforcement probably weren’t aware of Balat and Kayumi before they traveled from their homes in Pennsylvania to New York.

But security expert Anthony Roman said the NYPD and the law enforcement agencies it partners with are skilled at tracking social media and other forms of communications to see who is planning attacks and stop them — sometimes before the public ever finds out.

In 2022, MTA officers arrested two men at Penn Station who police said were planning an attack at a Manhattan synagogue, after law enforcement learned about the possible threat earlier that day. Prosecutors said one of the men had posted on social media about plans to “shoot up a synagogue.”

“New York City is as well protected as any other location could be within the globe,” Roman said.

A threat to civil liberties?

Civil liberties advocates have raised concerns over the years about the potential consequences of the NYPD’s broad counterterrorism powers.

Michelle Dahl, executive director of the Surveillance Technology Oversight Project, said without protections in place, online monitoring could be used to sidestep the law. She said sometimes police make fake social media profiles to friend people and enter their private online spaces “by deception.” She also said the department has a long history of using social media to spy on protesters and alleged gang members.

”There's not accountability for who they are targeting — if they are actually tracking potential radicalized terrorists or if they're just tracking everyday New Yorkers through the social media monitoring,” Dahl said. “ The fact that they were unable, for instance, to prevent the Gracie Mansion attack should make us question, ‘What are they looking at through the social media monitoring infrastructure?’”

Dahl described social media surveillance as a form of digital stop-and-frisk, which she said could disproportionately target minorities or people with different viewpoints.

“I’m definitely concerned that they’re going to use this incident as an excuse to ramp up their social media monitoring, particularly of Muslim Americans,” she said.

Weiner said the NYPD conducts its counterterrorism work with “extensive internal review” from department lawyers, as well as guidance from an outside civilian representative. The department is also required to follow the Handschu agreement, which constrained the NYPD’s ability to investigate political and religious groups.

Waters said under his watch the NYPD’s terror-fighting techniques followed the Constitution and the law.

“I’m sure other people didn’t like it. That’s OK,” he said. “But that’s what we needed to do to protect the city.”